Thursday, January 8, 2009

Lines of trends, support and resistance


To draw a trendline only two points are necessary and the third one is the contact point confirmation.

On a bullish trend chart it should be drawn using troughs, on a bearish  using peaks. The trendline and a line which is about parallel to it and drawn on the opposite side (through peaks on a bullish trend and through troughs on a bearish) form the trade channel. Both lines are then channel's borders.
Lines of support and resistance. The upper and the bottom borders of trade channels are called accordingly support and resistance lines. The peaks represent the price levels at which the selling pressure exceeds the buying pressure. They are known as resistance levels. The troughs, on the other hand, represent the levels at which the selling pressure succumbs to the buying pressure. They are called support levels. In an uptrend, the consecutive support and resistance levels must exceed each other respectively. The reverse is true in a downtrend. Although minor exceptions are acceptable, these failures should be considered as warning signals for trend changing.

The significance of trends is a function of time and volume. The longer the prices bounce off the support and resistance levels, the more significant the trend becomes. Trading volume is also very important, especially at the critical support and resistance levels. When the currency bounces off these levels under heavy volume, the significance of the trend increases.
The importance of support and resistance levels goes beyond their original functions. If these levels are convincingly penetrated, they tend to turn into just the opposite. A firm support level, once it is penetrated on heavy volume, will likely turn into a strong resistance level. Conversely, a strong resistance turns into a firm support after being penetrated. In general, to evaluate the reliability (that is the possibility of a break) of the trade channel borders taking a decision to close or to save an existing position one should govern himself with following rules:

1. A channel is the more reliable the longer it exists. Hence, the solidity of very old channels (e.g. existing more than 1 year) decreased sharply.
2. A channel is the more reliable the more is his width.
3. The resistance may be broken if it is bounced on the background of a growing volume.
4. A steep channel is less reliable in compare to a gentle one.
5. The support may be broken independent on the volume.

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4 Tips For Choosing a Reputable Forex Broker

can attest to the specific broker's qualifications and success history.

Put yourself in that position, would you testify to someone's strengths if they did a poor job for you? Client history testimony should be present in any prospective Forex broker and plentiful to indicate a solid background with trading. You can tentatively assess a lot from a Forex broker with a list of clients that will speak up for the brokerage firm or individual broker. It should be noted that all word of mouth testimony should be taken with a grain of salt and dissected to collect the pertinent information. Testimony should be used in your research to find a Forex broker but should not be the deciding factor.

Another good morsel to test the reliability of any potential Forex broker is the amount of information, literature and lessons that they are willing to give to you. Most Forex brokers are of a high reputation and a solid background however, there are many out there that don't have a good history or no history and it is wise to steer clear of these brokers. You are trying to find a trusted financial advisor and settling for second best, just won't do. The more a potential Forex broker is willing to do for you in the area of helping you understand the Forex trading system, the better quality trader they will be for you.

A good avenue to travel down when seeking a good Forex broker is to ask your acquaintances about Forex brokers and how they met. This can not only give you prospective referrals to great Forex brokers but will also equip you with ideas and resources that you may not have located. If you get a referral from friends, be sure to still research that specific broker and his qualifications before committing to any formal agreement.

The other factor in finding a good Forex broker is the margin of return that is offered. A Forex trading margin used to influence your money and many Forex brokers offer different margins. Finding a Forex broker, who gives a margin of ten to one isn't a very good find so it's worth the time to reinvest in research. Remember that this industry is all about customer service and catering to the clients so if your prospective Forex broker doesn't return your calls within a reasonable time frame it would be advisable to keep searching.

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People are introduced to the exciting world of foreign exchange in many ways: friends, current events, newspapers, television, and many others. For those of you who are new to forex, the following guidelines cover the basics of currency trading.

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Selecting the Right Forex Broker

1) Is the broker I want to use regulated? This is the first question you should be asking yourself and there should be no doubt that they are. All regulated brokers are required to submit financial reports to regulatory authorities. Failing to do so can cause authorities to fine brokers or even end their membership. These rules force Forex brokers to keep financial reports.
Each broker is regulated by local regulatory authorities. For instance, if a broker is based in the United States, they're regulated by the National Futures Association (NFA) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Swiss brokers, however, are regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance (FDF). Using a regulated broker also protects investors because they're able to dispute resolutions.

2) What are the trading conditions like? This question refers to the trading conditions and special features of the trading platform with a Forex broker. Some of the most important factors include:

-Spread - The smaller the spread on currency pairs, the more favorable the conditions are for both traders and investors.
-Platform Execution - This term refers to how quickly and consistently the trades are executed. Many brokers promise fast, transparent executions during normal market conditions.
- Fractional Trading - Some brokers may allow investors and traders to trade on a fractional basis. For example, rather than allowing you to trade full lots of "100,000 units," they let you trade "163,345 units," which is helpful when you're making trades that risk a certain percentage of the balance on each trade.
-Safety of Funds - It's important to make sure that your trading funds are placed in a segregated account or, at the very least, insured for safe

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Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Momentum Indicator

The MACD is based on three moving averages, however, they essentially show up as being only two lines.

The 8  period and the 17  period moving averages are combined to form the faster-moving average line. The 9  period exponential moving average forms the slower-moving average. In your daytrading strategy, the MACD moving average lines can be read for three pieces of information to give you the buy and sell signals you need for successful trades.

The first type of buy and sell signal you get from the MACD is called a breakout. This breakout is signified by the faster-moving average crossing the slower-moving average. If you were to examine a MACD chart, you would see a few places where this is happening. Like we talked about earlier, when the faster-moving average line crosses the slower-moving average line on the way up, you’ve got a bullish signal. Conversely, when the faster-moving average line crosses the slower-moving average line on the way down, you’ve got a bearish signal. That’s a breakout. There are some traders who will enter or exit a trade based when the line crosses, however, keep in mind that by doing so, you could limit potential profits and take on additional losses.

The second type of buy and sell signal we can get from the MACD is to test for support and resistance. When you’re day trading stocks, you might be told to trade on the cross, but here is something you can add to your strategy instead of just blindly trading at the cross. What you can do is check to see if the indicator lines are moving in the same direction and test the indicator line as being a support or resistance line after the cross.

The last type of buy and sell signal we can get from the MACD is divergence information. When the fast- and the slow-moving average lines move away from each other, the mound on the chart expands. As these lines draw near to each other, the mound shrinks. That is called divergence. Divergence is an important day trading tip that can strengthen your position on a trade if read correctly.

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Forex Swing Trading with Elliott Wave

In technical analysis, just as in fundamental analysis, there are lagging indicators and leading indicators. One of the most reliable tools used to predict forex market swings is Elliott Wave analysis. Elliott Wave analysis can be used to identify trends and countertrends, trend continuation or exhaustion and to evaluate the potential price targets of a trend.
You can apply Elliott Wave analysis to both long and short position swing trade set ups for your currency pairs.
Elliott Wave theory is named after Ralph Nelson Elliott, who concluded that the markets moved in a repetitive pattern of waves. He attributed this action to the mass psychology of the market.
Elliott concluded that the market¡¯s movement was a direct result of the mass psychology of the time and that the stock market is a fractal. A fractal is an object that is similar in shape, but at different scales. A great example of a fractal in nature is a stalk of broccoli. The stalk and the individual branches look exactly the same; just the branches are smaller in scale.

Fractals just happen to form in accordance with Fibonacci ratios. Is this a coincidence?


Elliott attributes this mass psychological move to the human trait of herding. Even though Elliott¡s theories were based on stock market price movements, it has been applied to evaluating Presidential approval ratings and fashion trends changes as well.

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Monday, December 29, 2008

Forex Trading - a Simple Tip to Increase Your Profits and Reduce Your Effort Instantly!

I have been a Forex broker, taught Forex and been in contact with several thousand traders.

The enclosed tip is simple one the vast majority of traders I have come into contact with don't understand - but if they did, the tip would increase their profits dramatically.

The tip is based on the 80 - 20 rule which is used in a wide variety of areas of life for example, in business it says 80% of your profits will normally come from just 20% of your clients. In Forex terms it means - 80% of your overall profits will come from just 20% of your trades.

The reality is that most Forex traders take far too many trades, if they cut back on their trading frequency and only hit high odds trades their profits will increase dramatically.

They hold the following beliefs which are simply not true

- They can make money by scalping or day trading
These short term trades are low odds trades in fact - the odds are you will lose, as you are trading the market noise.
- They need to be in the market just in case they miss a move
If course this is rubbish, you can spot a move and enter when the time is right!
- The harder the work and the more trades they make the more money they will make
The work ethic doesn't apply in Forex; many people think with effort they can force money from the market and they lose.


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Sunday, December 28, 2008

One Of The Major Indicators: Current Account

Measure of the country’s international trade balance in goods, services and unilateral transfers. The level of the current account,as well as the trends in exports and imports, are followed as indicators of trends in foreign trade. U.S. trade with foreign countries hold important clues to economic trends here and abroad. The data can directly impact all the financial markets, but especially the foreign exchange value of the dollar.

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